COVID-19: Epidemiology and Preventive Measures in Jiangsu Province, China (preprint)

Background To discuss the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) and prevention measures in Jiangsu Province. Methods Information on all novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed cases in Jiangsu was collected from the official website of Jiangsu Commission of Health. All data are entered into Excel and Python3 for statistical analysis. Epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed cases from January 10, 2020 to March 18th in Jiangsu province were retrospectively analyzed. Meanwhile, the preventive measures of Jiangsu Commission of Health and the people's Government of Jiangsu Province were also analyzed. Results 631 COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Jiangsu Province, covering 13 districts in Jiangsu. Before February 1, the confirmed cases were mainly imported cases, and after February 1, community transmission cases became main part of confirmed cases. There were more male patients than females, and most patients were in the group of 30-70 years old, 49 patients (7.8%) with mild symptom and 572 patients (90.6%) with common type accounted for the majority. The cumulative mortality rate was 0% and the cure rate was 100%. Reasonable treatment, timely and effective preventive measures were taken to effectively improve cure rate and to prevent the spread of the epidemic, all measures ensure the health and life safety of the people. Conclusion The preventive measures in Jiangsu Province were timely and effective, the epidemic situation in Jiangsu Province had been well controlled and cured.

Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the World: The Roles of Intervention and Seasonality (preprint)

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading rapidly all over the world. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic is still unclear, but developing strategies for mitigating the severity of the pandemic is yet a top priority for global public health. In this study, we developed a novel compartmental model, SEIR-CV(susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed with control variables), which not only considers the key characteristics of asymptomatic infection and the effects of seasonal variations, but also incorporates different control measures for multiple transmission routes, so as to accurately predict and effectively control the spread of COVID-19. Based on SEIR-CV, we predicted the COVID-19 epidemic situation in China out of Hubei province and proposed corresponding control strategies. The results showed that the prediction results are highly consistent with the outbreak surveillance data, which proved that the proposed control strategies have achieved sound consequent in the actual epidemic control. Subsequently, we have conducted a rolling prediction for the United States, Brazil, India, five European countries (the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Germany, and France), southern hemisphere, northern hemisphere, and the world out of China. The results indicate that control measures and seasonal variations have a great impact on the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our prediction results show that the COVID-19 pandemic is developing more rapidly due to the impact of the cold season in the southern hemisphere countries such as Brazil. While the development of the pandemic should have gradually weakened in the northern hemisphere countries with the arrival of the warm season, instead of still developing rapidly due to the relative loose control measures such as the United States and India. Furthermore, the prediction results illustrate that if keeping the current control measures in the main COVID-19 epidemic countries, the pandemic will not be contained and the situation may eventually turn to group immunization, which would lead to the extremely severe disaster of about 5 billion infections and 300 million deaths globally. However, if China's super stringent control measures were implemented from 15 July, 15 August or 15 September 2020, the total infections would be contained about 15 million, 32 million or 370 million respectively, which indicates that the stringent and timely control measures is critical, and the best window period is before September for eventually overcoming COVID-19.

COVID-19: epidemiology and preventive measures in Jiangsu province, China (preprint)

Background: To investigate the epidemiological features of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) and the prevention measures in Jiangsu Province. Methods: Information of all novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed cases in Jiangsu was collected from the official website of Jiangsu Commission of Health. All data were entered into Excel and Python3 for statistical analysis. Epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia confirmed cases from January 10, 2020 to March 18 in Jiangsu province were retrospectively analyzed. Meanwhile, the preventive measures of Jiangsu Commission of Health and the people’s Government of Jiangsu Province were also analyzed. Results: 631 COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Jiangsu Province, covering 13 cities in Jiangsu. Before February 1, the confirmed cases were mainly imported cases, and after February 1, community transmission cases became main part of confirmed cases. There were more male patients than females, and most patients were in the group of 30-70 years old, 49 patients (7.8%) with mild symptom and 572 patients (90.6%) with common type accounted for the majority. The cumulative mortality rate was 0% and the cure rate was 100%. Reasonable treatments, timely and effective preventive measures were taken to effectively improve cure rate and to prevent the spread of the epidemic, all measures ensure the health and life safety of the people. Conclusion: The preventive measures in Jiangsu Province were timely and effective, the epidemic situation in Jiangsu Province had been well controlled.